Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Intelligent Real Estate Decision Making

Thinking of buying and investing in Boise Area Real Estate? Don't rely on hear-say, your gut feeling or what the locals might tell you. Our friends at Forecast-Chart.com, who chart the course of financial markets, show us a very analytical view of our local market and Boise's "home price appreciation." They publish forecasts for the trend in home prices in 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The House Price Trend will be either UP or DOWN. Here is their take for the Boise area. I find it all very straightforward and optimistic for the health of Treasure Valley's economic growth. "ID-BUY" in Boise...


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Boise City Real Estate Market: Trend, Analysis & Statistics 
3rd Quarter, 2012 Housing Statistics: Boise City, Idaho

Part 1: HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
12 Month Forecast:        UP
Forecast Accuracy:      78%
The forecast for the trend in the Boise City housing market for the 12 months ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2013 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend
Forecast for Boise City is 78%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the forecasting methodology was correct 78% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Boise City is 78% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home prices will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2013 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2012. Check this page each quarter for updates to the Boise City
Real Estate Market Forecast.

3 Year Forecast:            UP
Forecast Accuracy:      77%
The forecast for the trend in the Boise City housing market for the 3 years
ending with the 3rd Quarter of 2015 is UP. The Accuracy of the Trend Forecast
for Boise City is 77%. In other words, when tested against historical data, the
forecasting methodology was correct 77% of the time. Accordingly,
Forecast-Chart.com estimates that the probability for rising house prices in
Boise City is 77% during this period. If this Housing Market Forecast is correct,
home values will be higher in the 3rd Quarter of 2015 than they were in the 3rd
Quarter of 2012.

Real Estate Appreciation, Rank & Percentile
Last Quarter                              2.59%         Rank: 50 of 381 (87th Percentile)
Last Year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  6.7%           Rank: 7 of 381 (98th Percentile)
Last 5 Years                              -34%           Rank: 337 of 381 (11th Percentile)
Last 10 Years  . . . . . . . . . . . .   7%              Rank: 293 of 381 (23rd Percentile)
Last 20 Years                            72%            Rank: 219 of 365 (40th Percentile)
Decline From All Time High        34.37%

Home Price appreciation rates for Boise City-Nampa, ID are shown above for
five time periods. For example: Boise City appreciated 2.59% in the Last
Quarter. At that rate, the Boise City Real Estate Market was ranked 50th out of
381 metropolitan areas for Real Estate Appreciation. Boise City was in the 87th
percentile. So Boise City, ID performed better in the Last Quarter than 87% of
the 381 metropolitan areas covered in Forecast-Chart.com.

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Feel free to call me with any questions.
Rick Bennett, Your Boise-Area Realtor
208-407-0532

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